Disney Just Bet Everything on Moana Going Live-Action — And July's Only Getting Bigger
Catherine Laga'aia steps into the biggest Disney live-action debut since Halle Bailey's Little Mermaid, Dwayne Johnson returns as Maui, and this is just the warmup — Nolan, Evil Dead, and Spider-Man are all coming before August.
Last week gave us Minions on steroids and a Revolutionary War biopic. This week, Disney asks the question it keeps asking: can we take an animated classic and make you pay for it again?
The answer, historically, has been yes. But the trend line is starting to wobble.
The Main Event — Moana (Jul 10)
Thomas Kail — yes, the Hamilton guy — makes his narrative feature debut with Disney's live-action Moana. Catherine Laga'aia steps into the title role, and Dwayne Johnson returns as Maui because of course he does.
Shot in Atlanta and Hawaii, this is Disney's most logistically ambitious live-action remake yet. The original Moana (2016) made $687 million worldwide on the strength of "How Far I'll Go" and a charismatic ocean. The live-action version needs to prove it can replicate that magic with real water and a new lead nobody outside of Australian television has heard of.
Kail is a fascinating choice. He turned a hip-hop musical about Alexander Hamilton into the biggest cultural event of the 2010s. Can he do the same thing with a Polynesian demigod and a sentient ocean? That's the $200 million question.
Anticipation: 8/10. The trailers look gorgeous. The music is still Opetaia Foa'i and Lin-Manuel Miranda. Dwayne Johnson's voice alone sells tickets. But everything depends on whether Catherine Laga'aia can carry a movie.
The Remake Report Card
Let's talk about the elephant in the room. Disney's live-action remakes have generated over $7 billion worldwide. But the trend tells a different story:
| Film | Year | Worldwide Gross | |------|------|-----------------| | Beauty and the Beast | 2017 | $1.264 billion | | The Lion King | 2019 | $1.663 billion | | Aladdin | 2019 | $1.054 billion | | The Little Mermaid | 2023 | $569 million | | Mufasa | 2024 | $718 million |
See the pattern? The first three cracked a billion each. Then Little Mermaid fell 46% short of Beauty and the Beast's haul. Mufasa recovered slightly but still underperformed its predecessor by 57%.
Moana doesn't need a billion. But it needs to prove the formula isn't running on fumes. Tracking suggests $90-110 million opening weekend. If it hits the high end, Disney breathes easy. If it lands closer to Little Mermaid territory, expect some very uncomfortable shareholder calls.
Still in Theaters
Minions & Monsters enters week two after a solid opening. The Despicable Me franchise continues to print money — Trey Parker and Jesse Eisenberg as new villains gave it the shot in the arm it needed.
Supergirl is in week three. The DCU's second film is holding well — Milly Alcock's cosmic adventure found its audience, even if it's a different audience than Superman's. Week-three legs will tell us if this has $180 million domestic potential.
Toy Story 5 enters week four, cruising toward that $440 million domestic target. Andrew Stanton's return continues to pay dividends — Toy Story 3 and 4 both had exceptional legs, and the fifth looks like it's following the same playbook.
Disclosure Day wraps up its theatrical run in week five. Spielberg's sci-fi comeback will finish as his biggest film since Indiana Jones — not bad for a movie about first contact that doesn't feature a single explosion in its first hour.
Coming Soon — And July Is Stacked
If you think Moana is the main event of July, you haven't been paying attention.
The Odyssey (Jul 17) — Christopher Nolan adapts Homer. The Dark Knight and Oppenheimer director goes ancient Greek with Matt Damon as Odysseus, Anne Hathaway as Penelope, Zendaya as Athena, Tom Holland, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong'o, and Charlize Theron. It's the first film shot entirely on IMAX cameras. If Interstellar proved Nolan could do epic sci-fi and Oppenheimer proved he could do epic biography, this proves he can do... everything. This might be the most anticipated film of the entire summer.
Evil Dead Burn (Jul 24) — Sébastien Vaniček (Evil Dead Rise breakout) returns to the franchise. Souheila Yacoub and Hunter Doohan star. The original franchise keeps reinventing itself every decade — this is the sixth installment and somehow it still feels fresh.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Jul 31) — Tom Holland returns. Sadie Sink joins. Jon Bernthal is the Punisher. Destin Daniel Cretton directs. After No Way Home's $1.9 billion, this is the biggest question of the year: can Peter Parker's fresh start match his farewell? July ends with a bang.
Moana sets the table. Nolan raises the stakes. Spider-Man closes it out. Your wallet is not ready.
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